The 2024 Climate Scorecard: Who’s Leading, Who’s Lagging, and What Comes Next

by Dan Roscoe, CEO of Roswall

In 2024, the global community witnessed both commendable advancements and concerning setbacks in the fight against climate change. While some nations accelerated their efforts toward a sustainable future, others lagged, underscoring the need for renewed commitment and action.

Notably, 2024 marked the first year in which the global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold identified in the Paris Agreement. This alarming development underscores the accelerating pace of climate change and the pressing need for comprehensive action. Concurrently, while some nations have made significant strides in renewable energy adoption and emissions reductions, others have missed key deadlines for submitting updated climate action plans, highlighting disparities in global commitment. These mixed outcomes emphasize the importance of evaluating both progress and setbacks to inform future strategies effectively.

Climate Leaders: The Countries and Regions Making the Biggest Strides

European Union: A Record-Breaking Year for Renewables and Emissions Cuts

The European Union achieved an 8% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, with nearly 50% of its electricity generated from renewable sources. Initiatives such as the European Green Deal and systematic coal phase-outs have been pivotal in this success.

United States: 96% of New Power Capacity Was Carbon-Free

In the United States, 96% of new power capacity additions were carbon-free, driven by substantial growth in solar, wind, and battery storage. The decline of coal-fired power plants and proactive clean energy policies at the state level, particularly in California, Texas, and New York, have been instrumental.

United Kingdom: Phasing Out Coal, Breaking Wind Energy Records

The United Kingdom marked a significant milestone by shutting down its last coal-fired power plant. Wind energy reached a peak, supplying 30% of total energy mix. The nation is also expanding electric vehicle adoption and modernizing its grid infrastructure.

Emerging Markets: Unexpected Climate Progress in Developing Nations

India and China: Substantial Growth in Solar Power Installations

In 2024, China achieved a remarkable 45% increase in solar power capacity, adding 277 gigawatts and reaching a total of nearly 887 gigawatts—surpassing its 2030 target six years ahead of schedule. India also made significant strides, installing approximately 24.5 gigawatts of new solar capacity in 2024, marking its highest annual addition to date.

South America: Investments in Hydro and Wind Energy on the Rise

In South America, countries such as Brazil and Chile, are leading the way in solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind development. Brazil, for instance, added 36 terawatt-hours (TWh) of wind and solar energy in 2023, accounting for 78% of the region's growth in these sectors. Uruguay and Chile also boast high shares of wind and solar energy, with 39% and 32% respectively.

Africa: Significant strides Made in Off-grid Solar Electrification

Africa has made significant strides in off-grid solar electrification, enhancing energy access and sustainability. The continent received 70% of the world's off-grid investments between 2010 and 2020, with countries like Nigeria leading in adopting off-grid solar solutions.

Climate Laggards: Who’s Falling Behind on the Transition?

China: Renewable Expansion vs. Coal Dependence

China has rapidly expanded its renewable energy capacity, becoming a global leader in solar and wind installations. However, the nation continues to approve and construct new coal-fired power plants at rates not seen in a decade. In 2022, China permitted the highest number of new coal power plants since 2015, with a significant increase in construction starts. This surge is driven by concerns over energy security, particularly following power shortages and economic disruptions. Despite its commitment to "strictly control" coal, China's reliance on this fossil fuel persists, highlighting the tension between its renewable ambitions and immediate energy needs.

Russia: The Fossil Fuel Stronghold

Russia remains heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, which contributed to 45% of its federal budget in 2021. The nation's climate policies are considered unambitious, with minimal investments in renewable energy. Analyses indicate that Russia's existing policies show no real commitment to curbing emissions, and the country can easily meet its current targets without significant changes. This reliance on fossil fuels poses a substantial challenge to global decarbonization efforts and leaves Russia vulnerable to economic risks associated with fluctuating oil and gas markets.

Middle East: The Oil Economy’s Slow Shift

The Middle East has initiated steps toward diversifying its energy mix, with countries like Saudi Arabia setting ambitious renewable energy targets. Saudi Arabia aims to source at least 50% of its power from renewables by 2030, expanding its capacity to 130 gigawatts. Despite these initiatives, the region remains predominantly reliant on oil and gas exports for economic growth. Clean energy investments are rising but are still overshadowed by the Middle East's traditional role as a major supplier of fossil fuels.

Australia: A Fossil Fuel Export Giant Struggling to Pivot

Australia has been slow in phasing out coal and has faced challenges in accelerating investments in large-scale renewable energy projects. The country is one of the world's largest coal exporters, and its domestic energy policies have historically favored fossil fuels. However, recent developments indicate a potential shift. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) asserts that the nation's electricity grid can remain reliable during the transition to renewable energy, provided that new projects are delivered on time and in full. This underscores the importance of timely investments and policy support to facilitate Australia's energy transition.

Canada: Strong on Carbon Pricing and Renewables but Still One of the World’s Largest Oil Exporters

Canada has enacted ambitious net-zero emissions targets and is recognized for its leadership in carbon pricing and renewable energy adoption. The federal carbon pricing system, established in 2019, is set to increase to C$170 per tonne by 2030, aiming to incentivize emission reductions across various sectors. Despite these initiatives, Canada remains one of the world's largest oil exporters, supplying nearly 60% of U.S. crude oil imports. This reliance on fossil fuel exports presents a complex challenge, as the nation balances economic interests with environmental commitments.

Additionally, a rising populist political wave poses risks to Canada's renewable energy initiatives and carbon pricing mechanisms. Critics argue that current measures are either insufficient or economically burdensome, highlighting the challenges of balancing economic development and environmental sustainability.

What Comes Next: The Climate Agenda for 2025 and Beyond

Expanding Battery Storage and Grid Modernization

Investing in battery storage and modernizing grid infrastructure are crucial steps toward making renewable energy sources more reliable and efficient. Energy storage systems (ESS) play a pivotal role in stabilizing the grid by storing excess energy generated from renewable sources like wind and solar, and releasing it when demand is high or production is low. This not only ensures a consistent energy supply but also enhances grid resilience and efficiency. Modernizing the grid involves upgrading existing infrastructure to integrate these advanced technologies, facilitating better energy management and distribution. Such advancements are essential for accommodating the increasing share of renewables in our energy mix and for meeting future energy demands.

Accelerating the EV Transition

Policies promoting electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the expansion of charging infrastructure are essential for mass EV adoption. Supportive policies, such as tax incentives and rebates, make EVs more accessible to consumers, while investments in charging infrastructure alleviate range anxiety and enhance convenience. This dual approach not only accelerates the transition to cleaner transportation but also contributes to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and improved urban air quality.

Scaling Up Nature-Based Carbon Capture

Scaling up nature-based carbon capture is a vital component of comprehensive climate strategies. Innovative approaches, such as river alkalinity enhancement by CarbonRun, involve adding crushed limestone to rivers to reduce acidity and enhance CO₂ sequestration as stable bicarbonate. Restoring coastal habitats, known as blue carbon ecosystems, like mangroves and seagrasses, captures carbon and supports biodiversity. Converting biomass into biochar stores carbon in soils and improves soil health. Additionally, regenerative agriculture practices, such as cover cropping and reduced tillage, increase soil carbon storage and enhance soil fertility. These methods not only sequester carbon but also offer co-benefits like improved soil health, water quality, and biodiversity.

Green Finance and Climate Investment Growth

There is a notable rise in investments in clean energy companies, with both public and private sector funding playing pivotal roles in driving climate initiatives. Green finance mechanisms, such as green bonds and sustainable investment funds, are channeling capital into renewable energy projects, energy efficiency improvements, and other sustainable developments. This financial support accelerates the deployment of clean technologies and fosters innovation in the energy sector, contributing significantly to global decarbonization efforts.

The Race to Stay Below 1.5°C

The year 2024 was the first to record an average global temperature exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This alarming milestone underscores the urgent need for stronger emissions reductions before 2030. Immediate and decisive action is required to mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change, necessitating enhanced international cooperation, policy implementation, and societal commitment to sustainable practices.

The Road Ahead for Global Climate Progress

Reflecting on 2024, it's evident that while significant progress has been made, substantial challenges remain. The urgency of action in 2025 cannot be overstated. Individuals, businesses, and policymakers must collaborate to drive meaningful change and ensure a sustainable future for all. This collective effort involves adopting renewable energy sources, enhancing energy efficiency, supporting climate-friendly policies, and fostering innovations that contribute to environmental sustainability.